Regional Accent Not Enough - The Washington Post -

DINWIDDIE, Va. -- The proximity of Civil War battlefields, including Five Forks, sometimes called "the Waterloo of the Confederacy," has long reminded people in this small crossroads of distinctions between North and South.

"We're down here in Civil War country, and a lot of that carries forth," said Tom Page, an apple orchard owner and publisher of the Monitor, the local weekly newspaper, as he reflected on efforts by the Democratic presidential candidates to attract southern voters. He explained the distance between people here and Sen. John F. Kerry of Massachusetts and former Vermont governor Howard Dean this way: "Simply put, they're Yankees."

But as the Democratic candidates head toward the South Carolina primary Tuesday -- their first contest south of the Mason-Dixon line -- and Virginia's a week later, there is little agreement among the campaigns, political observers and voters over whether being "southern" will sway the electorate. Some think the appeal of a southern identity could boost the campaigns of Sen. John Edwards, from nearby North Carolina, and retired Army Gen. Wesley K. Clark, who hails from Arkansas, while others doubt that regional loyalty will be sufficient to assure victory.

Last week, Clark touted his regional roots: "I don't think New Englanders are going to lead our party to victory," he said.

Edwards has argued that he is "intimately familiar" with the concerns of southern voters and, apparently claiming the mantle of the region's favorite son, opined that "General Clark is from a different place."

But among people here, as well as political analysts, it is an open question on whether such appeals will elicit votes.

Harrison Moody, a Dinwiddie County supervisor and the former chairman of the county's Democratic Party, weighed the Clark campaign's claim that the general "is the one candidate who really understands southern voters and southern values."

"That kind of campaign will have some kind of effect," he said. In fact, Moody is leaning toward one of the southern candidates, Edwards or Clark. "Southerners have a feeling sometimes that they haven't been represented all that well -- they're more conservative," he said.

Others, however, while acknowledging differences between the South and other regions, say it is naive to think that southern voters might be appealed to as a bloc. The South is too varied -- certainly more diverse than the "guys with Confederate flags on their pickup trucks" remark that Dean caught flak for earlier in the campaign -- to be won over simply by regional appeals.

"Candidates from the South may understand the southern psyche better than Dean and some of the others from the Northeast, but people in the South have changed," said Albert Glass, 59, who grew up on a farm here and works for the Virginia Farm Bureau. "It's more of a mix of people -- I see more decals for Jerry Garcia than I do of the Confederate flag."

This part of Virginia, known as Southside, and the southwest portions of the state, including Roanoke and Martinsville, are considered key areas by many political strategists.

While people here celebrate their differences from other parts of the country, they resist the idea that national political campaigns can win them over purely by appealing to their regional pride.

"This place is different -- a whole different country from Northern Virginia," said Diane Abernathy, 54, a high school algebra teacher. "But I vote for the person, not where they're from."

The difference between North and South "doesn't really relate to how voters are going to choose a candidate," Page said. Voters in this part of the country are "a lot more sophisticated than folks in Northern Virginia or New York City think."

The campaigns of the presidential candidates from New England, not surprisingly, also minimize the effects of geography.

"Some of John Edwards's attraction is that he is from a neighboring state," said Susan Swecker, director of the Kerry campaign in Virginia. "But I think Democrats are going to look at who has the experience in foreign policy and domestic issues to go head-to-head with George Bush."

Former lieutenant governor Donald S. Beyer Jr., who is organizing the Dean campaign in Virginia, warned that regional appeals could backfire by alienating voters elsewhere in the state.

"The biggest voter base is likely to be in Northern Virginia, where a lot of people used to live someplace else. It doesn't resonate particularly there," he said.

"I also look at the African American vote," he added. Black voters are "not amenable at all to a North versus South message."

Larry J. Sabato, a political scientist at the University of Virginia, while acknowledging that people tend to vote for people like themselves, said that regional appeals are a thing of the past.

"People do vote for individuals who are like them -- we're tribal," he said. But "using prejudice against northerners is outdated here. Maybe the Clark campaign hasn't noticed, but we have a Connecticut-raised governor."

But Robert D. Holsworth, a professor at Virginia Commonwealth University, said that the regional appeal may be successful -- depending on what happens Tuesday in South Carolina.

"If Edwards and Clark run very strong in South Carolina, they may be able to develop an argument that the party needs a candidate who can be competitive in the South to beat Bush," he said. "In effect, they will have to turn the 'electability' argument that Kerry has used against him."

Even if regional appeals are potent, however, campaign strategists said the northern candidates can counteract them. During the 2001 campaign for Virginia governor, for example, Democrat Mark R. Warner was taunted by his Republican opponent, Mark L. Earley, about his connections to Connecticut, where Warner spent his teenage years.

"This campaign is about Virginia values. It's about the commonwealth, not Connecticut," Earley said during the campaign.

In response, "We made a decision to reach out to rural voters in the state," said Warner's campaign manager, Steve Jarding.

Warner sponsored a NASCAR team. A group of hunters and anglers, Sportsmen for Warner, was organized. A bluegrass song was crafted on his behalf, too: "From the coal mines to the stills, here comes Mark Warner, the hero of the hills."

He narrowly won Dinwiddie County, where a local point of interest is Virginia Motorsports Park. Some analysts believe Warner's success here and in other rural areas was critical in winning the governorship.

"We let people know that we appreciated the culture," Jarding said. "We said, 'This is a part of your culture, and we think it's important.' That message resonated with people."

Harrison Moody, a Dinwiddie County supervisor and the former chairman of the county's Democratic Party, is leaning toward one of the two southern candidates.

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